<button id="a3wgx"></button>
        <tbody id="a3wgx"></tbody>

         
         
         
        全球先進生物能源資訊 » 新聞資訊 » 國際資訊 » 正文行業新聞 國際資訊 專家學者 技術交流 政策法規 展會動態 

        智利:新興的顆粒行業 AN EMERGING PELLET SECTOR

        放大字體  縮小字體 發布日期:2018-09-03  來源:全球先進生物能源資訊  瀏覽次數:2035

         

        FutureMetrics

        FutureMetrics開發了一個綜合模型,用于估算生產和運輸工業木屑顆粒到外國港口的成本。成本估算的重要驅動因素之一是用于收獲和運輸林產品以及將顆粒運輸到終端的柴油燃料的成本。通過使用石油價格的預測以及顆粒供應鏈的其他組成部分的已知或預期值,該模型可用于估算生產和交付顆粒的未來成本。

        FutureMetrics has developed a comprehensive model for estimating the cost to produce and ship industrial wood pellets to a foreign port. One of the significant drivers of the cost estimate is the cost of the diesel fuel used in the harvest and transport of forest products and the transport of pellets to the shipping terminal. Using forecasts for petroleum prices and known or expected values for other components of the supply chain for pellets, the model can be used to estimate the future costs to produce and deliver pellets.

         

        交付的顆粒歷史價格

        Delivered Pellet Historical Prices

         

        FutureMetrics根據國際貿易數據估算了木屑顆粒的歷史交付價格(CIF)。有關進口顆粒的價值和數量的數據可以深入了解買家為燃料支付的價格。由于大多數顆粒的國際貿易都是長期合同,因此這些價格反映了具有競爭力的長期市場清算價值。
        FutureMetrics has estimated the historical delivered (CIF) price of wood pellets from international trade data. Data on the value and quantity of imported pellets gives insight into the prices that buyers are paying for the fuel. Because most of the international trade of pellets is under long-term contracts, those prices reflect a competitive, long-run, market-clearing value.

        現貨價格受短期供需失衡的影響。如果市場處于供應過剩的狀態,價格就會下跌。 如果市場處于需求過剩狀態,價格上漲。長期承購協議價格基于顆粒燃料的相互可持續的價值。這些價格不受短期供需失衡的影響。

        The spot price is influenced by short-term supply and demand imbalances.  If the market is in a state of excess supply, prices fall. If the market in a state of excess demand, prices rise. Long-term offtake agreement prices are based on mutually sustainable values for the pellet fuel. Those prices are unaffected by short-term supply and demand imbalances. 

        FutureMetrics估算了幾個常見目的地的CIF價格,包括ARA和日本。英國CIF的估計數如圖1所示。請注意,加權平均值考慮了出口國的市場份額。美國、加拿大和巴爾干國家主導了進口到英國的顆粒比例。6月份的最新數據顯示,美國占英國市場的58.4%,加拿大占19.6%,巴爾干國家約占19.8%,還有來自俄羅斯的少量。

        FutureMetrics has estimated CIF prices for several common destinations, including ARA and Japan. The estimates for CIF U.K. are in Figure 1.  Note that the weighted average considers the market share of the exporting countries. The U.S., Canada and the Balkan states dominate the share of pellets imported into the U.K. The most recent data for June shows that the U.S. has 58.4 percent of the U.K. market, with Canada having 19.6 percent, the Balkan states about 19.8 percent, with the small remainder from Russia.  


        由于貿易數據包括以現貨價格進口的顆粒,俄羅斯這樣幾乎完全在現貨交易的低產量出口商將表現出更高的價格波動性。 三個月均線和趨勢平緩了大部分波動。 在過去的幾年中,根據這一分析,交付給英國的平均長期承購價格介于每噸180-190美元之間。
        Since the trade data includes pellets imported at spot prices, lower-volume exporters such as Russia, which has traded almost entirely on spot, will exhibit higher price volatility. The three-month moving average and the trend smooth out most of that volatility.  Over the past several years, based in this analysis, the average long-term offtake price delivered to the U.K. has been between $180 and $190 per metric ton (MT).  

         

        該模型

        The Model

        該模型的目標是利用顆粒的估計交付價格,然后根據通常預測的宏觀經濟參數預測未來價格。

        The goal of the model is to replicate the estimated delivered price of pellets, and then, based on commonly forecast macroeconomic parameters, forecast future prices. 


        該分析假設該市場不處于供應過?;蛐枨筮^剩的狀態。在短期內,可能存在影響現貨價格的供需失衡。 然而,生產和交付顆粒的內在成本,包括典型的利潤率,將決定長期供應合同的市場價格。
        The analysis assumes that that market is not in a condition of excess supply or demand.  In the short-run, there may be a supply and demand imbalance that would impact spot prices. However, the intrinsic costs of producing and delivering pellets, including typical profit margins, will set the market prices for long-run supply contracts.


        該方法涉及顆粒成本的每個主要組成部分開發獨立的子模型,即顆粒廠的木材成本,顆粒廠轉換成本(不包括木材成本)加邊際,從工廠到港口和港口存儲的內陸運輸和裝載成本和運費。
        The methodology involves developing independent submodels for each of the main components of pellet costs, which are wood costs delivered to the pellet mill, pellet mill conversion costs (excluding wood costs) plus margin, inland transportation from the mill to the port and port storage and loading costs, and shipping. 

         

        木材成本模型從立木成本開始,然后考慮收獲和交付的設備,勞動力和卡車運輸。 在模型中,輸入了從樹林到高速公路的四類道路上行駛的距離。柴油燃料的使用和成本是交付木材總成本的很大一部分。如果顆粒廠只使用鋸木廠殘留物,那么該模型可以說明鋸木廠已經吸收了大部分收獲和圓木運輸成本。
        The wood cost model begins with stumpage cost and then accounts for equipment, labor and trucking for harvest and delivery. Within the model are inputs for distance traveled on four classes of roads, from in-woods to highway. The use and cost of diesel fuel is a large component of the total cost of delivered wood. If the pellet mill uses only sawmill residuals, the model accounts for the fact that the sawmill has absorbed most of the harvest and roundwood delivery costs.

         

        轉換成本是將進入的纖維轉化為木屑顆粒的成本。利潤是基于每噸EBITDA的歷史價值。
        Conversion costs are the costs to take incoming fiber and converting it into wood pellets. The margin is based on historic values for EBITDA per MT.

         

        對于從工廠到港口的內陸運輸,每噸/公里的成本是根據幾個輸入值計算的。存儲和裝載成本基于典型費率以及存儲和裝船基礎設施的攤銷成本。
        For inland transportation from the mill to the port, costs per MT-kilometer are calculated based on several inputs. Storage and loading costs are based on typical rates and the amortized cost of the storage and ship loading infrastructure.

        為了估算運輸成本,來自Argus生物質市場報告,FutureMetrics使用了來自五條不同路線和兩種船舶尺寸的超過200周的顆粒運費,并根據油價、行駛距離、船舶尺寸、運輸和裝載/進行了回歸分析/ 卸載時間,以及其他一些參數?;貧w輸出提供了一組用于估算長期運輸成本的穩健系數。
        To estimate shipping costs, from the Argus Biomass Market Report, FutureMetrics used over 200 weeks of pellet freight rates from five different routes and two vessel sizes, and performed a regression analysis based on oil prices, distances traveled, vessel sizes, transit and loading/unloading time, and a few other parameters. The regression output provides a robust set of coefficients for estimating long-term shipping costs.  

         

        FutureMetrics根據2020年1月1日國際海事組織實施的新規,調整了每噸運費。調整基于行進的距離,因此隨著距離的增加,每噸的成本增加。
        FutureMetrics has added an adjustment to the per-MT shipping rates based on the Jan. 1, 2020, implementation of the International Maritime Organization sulfur cap on emissions from shipping.  The adjustment is based on distance traveled, and thus the increased cost per MT increases with longer distances. 

         

        還有其他一些輸入值,包括一般成本通脹率。
        There are several other inputs including general cost inflation rates.

        FutureMetrics估計了模型關鍵輸入值的潛在可變性,并開發了這些輸入值的概率分布。這允許進行一系列蒙特卡羅模擬。模擬產生的價格預測范圍如圖2所示,它使用了幾個程式化的假設。每個顆粒廠的輸入將是不同的和獨特的。

        FutureMetrics has estimated the potential variability of the critical inputs to the model and has developed probability distributions for those inputs. That allows for a series of Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations yield ranges for the price forecasts that are shown in Figure 2, which uses several stylized assumptions. The inputs for each pellet mill will be different and unique.

         

        分析結果

        Results of the Analysis

        每個季度的估計CIF價格基于模擬產生的概率分布。例如,對于從美國東南部到英國伊明漢姆的2018第四季度顆粒,通過45,000噸船舶,圖3中顯示了來自10,000次模擬相互作用的可能CIF價格的分布。

        Each quarter’s estimated CIF price is based on a probability distribution produced by the simulation. For example, for quarter four 2018 pellets shipped from the U.S. Southeast to Immingham, U.K., on a 45,000-MT vessel, the distribution of possible CIF prices from 10,000 interactions of the simulation is shown in Figure 3.  


        顆粒原料的運輸距離對使用圓木或木材碎片的顆粒廠的木材交付成本具有強烈影響。木材的交付成本是生產顆??偝杀局凶罹哂绊懥Φ囊蛩?。綠色條表示生產者能夠以較低或較高的經營現金流利潤率緩沖外部成本變化。藍色條顯示生產者如何提高工廠效率(例如,更一致的操作和輸出),然后他們可以降低價格,但保持其利潤。
        Transport distances for the pellet feedstock have a strong impact on the delivered cost of wood to a pellet mill that uses roundwood or in-woods chips. The delivered cost of wood is the most influential factor in the total cost of producing pellets. The green bar gives some indication of the ability of the producer to buffer external cost changes with a lower or higher operating cash flow margin. The blue bar shows how if the producer can improve plant efficiency (for example, more consistent operation and output) then they can lower the price, but maintain their margin.  

         

        除非油價不遵循環境影響評估的上行軌跡,而且一般成本通脹率低于本例中的假設,或者生產者可以提高轉換成本或接受每噸的較低EBITDA,工業木屑顆粒的交付成本很可能到2030年,每噸超過250美元。
        Unless oil prices do not follow the upward trajectory forecast by the EIA and general cost inflation rates are below the assumption in this example, or producers can improve conversion costs or accept a lower EBITDA per MT, the delivered cost of industrial wood pellets is likely to be above $250 per MT by 2030.

         

        來源:Biomass Magazine 

        By:William Strauss 

         

         

         

        本文關鍵字:
         
        推薦圖文
        推薦新聞資訊
        最新文章
         
         
        一比一真金捕鱼