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        全球先進生物能源資訊 » 新聞資訊 » 國際資訊 » 正文行業新聞 國際資訊 專家學者 技術交流 政策法規 展會動態 

        國際能源署(IEA):預測至2023年生物能源生產將增長Growth in bioenergy production

        放大字體  縮小字體 發布日期:2018-10-08  來源:全球先進生物能源資訊  瀏覽次數:1696
         

         

        根據國際能源署(IEA)的最新市場預測,現代生物能源將成為2018-2023年間可再生能源的最大增長,僅用于電力部門生物能源在這5年期間將增加37吉瓦(GW),達到158吉瓦(GW)。

        In its latest market forecast, the International Energy Agency predicts modern bioenergy will represent the biggest growth in renewable energy sources between 2018 and 2023, with bioenergy in the power sector alone increasing by 37 gigawatts (GW) during that five year period, reaching 158 GW.

        國際能源署(IEA)于10月8日發布了《2018年可再生能源市場分析與預測報告》,指出在未來5年可再生能源將繼續擴大,占全球能源消費增長的40%。 可再生能源的使用預計將在電力部門增長最快,并且到2023年,將占全球總發電量的近三分之一。然而,由于政策支持較弱和其他部署障礙,可再生能源的使用預計將在運輸和供熱方面擴大得更慢 。

        The IEA released its Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast report on Oct. 8, showing that renewables will continue to expand over the next five years, accounting for 40 percent of global energy consumption growth. The use of renewables is expected to increase most rapidly in the electricity sector, and will account for almost one-third of total world electricity generation in 2023. The use of renewables, however, is expected to expand far more slowly in the transportation and heat sectors due to weaker policy support and other barriers to deployment.

         

        根據國際能源署(IEA)的報告,生物能源將在未來5年內成為可再生能源的最大來源,因為它在熱能和運輸領域得到廣泛應用,而其他可再生能源目前在這些領域發揮的作用要小得多。

        According to the IEA, bioenergy will remain the largest source of renewable energy over the next five years due to its widespread use in heat and transportation, sectors in which other renewables currently play a much smaller role.

         

         

        現代生物能源是可再生能源領域被忽視的巨人,”國際能源署(IEA)執行董事 Fatih Birol說。 “生物能源在全球可再生能源消費總量中的份額目前約為50%,換句話說就相當于水電、風能、太陽能和所有其他可再生能源的總和。我們預計現代生物能源將繼續引領該領域,并有巨大增長的前景。但正確的政策和嚴格的可持續性法規對于充分發揮其潛力至關重要。”

        “Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50 percent today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined. We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge prospects for further growth. But the right policies and rigorous sustainability regulations will be essential to meet its full potential.”

         

        國際能源署(IEA)發布的信息顯示,現代生物能源(不包括傳統的生物質能源)占去年消耗的可再生能源的一半,是太陽能光伏(PV)和風能總和的四倍。國際能源署表示,大多數現代生物能源用于最終能源消耗,以在建筑物和工業中提供熱量。

        Information released by the IEA shows that modern bioenergy, excluding the traditional use of biomass, was responsible for half of all renewable energy consumed last year, providing four times the contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind combined. The IEA said most modern bioenergy is used in final energy consumption to deliver heat in buildings and for industry.

        國際能源署(IEA)報告顯示,生物能源將成為未來五年可再生能源消費增長的最大來源。從2008-2023年,固體、液體和氣體燃料形式的生物能源將占可再生能源消費增長的30%。國際能源署表示,這是因為熱能和運輸中大量使用生物能源,占80% 最終的能源消耗。

        The IEA report shows bioenergy will be the largest source of growth in renewable consumption over the next five years. Bioenergy in the form of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels will account for 30 percent of the growth in renewable consumption from 2008 through 2023. The IEA said this is a result of the considerable use of bioenergy in heat and transport, which account for 80 percent of final energy consumption.

         

        雖然生物能源仍將是2023年可再生能源的主要來源,但國際能源署(IEA)表示,其在可再生能源總量中的份額將略有下降,從2017年的50%下降到2023年的46%。

        Although bioenergy will remain the predominant source of renewable energy in 2023, the IEA said its share of total renewable energy will decline slightly, from 50 percent in 2017 to 46 percent in 2023.

        根據該報告,2023年可再生能源將提供近30%的電力需求,高于2017年的24%。在5年期間,可再生能源預計將滿足全球70%以上的發電量增長。預計2023年生物能源將滿足全球約3%的電力需求。

        According to the report, renewables will provide almost 30 percent of power demand in 2023, up from 24 percent in 2017. During the five-year period, renewables are forecast to meet more than 70 percent of global electricity generation growth. Bioenergy is expected to meet approximately 3 percent of global electricity demand in 2023.

         

        預計未來5年生物能源發電量將增加37吉瓦,到2023年達到158吉瓦。國際能源署(IEA)表示,該預測已從去年上調,反映中國前景更加樂觀,預計中國將占全球生物能源的37% 。盡管國際能源署(IEA)表示英國和荷蘭仍是主要市場,但歐盟對生物能源的預測已經下調。雖然該報告指出生物能源并未迅速擴展到許多新市場,墨西哥和土耳其并未表現出部署增長的跡象。

        Bioenergy power capacity is expected to increase by 37 GW over the next five years, reaching 158 GW in 2023. The IEA said the forecast has been revised up from last year to reflect a more optimistic outlook for China, which is expected to account for 37 percent of global bioenergy. The forecast for bioenergy in the European union has been lowered, although the IEA said the U.K. and Netherlands remain major markets. While the report states that bioenergy is not expanding rapidly into many new markets, it does not that Mexico and Turkey are showing signs of growing deployment.  

         

        該報告指出,生物能源在未來5年可能增加19吉瓦的容量,主要增加50%。包括中國潛在的更高能源廢物和生物質熱電聯產部署,以及加強印度對農業廢棄物利用和巴西增加甘蔗渣發電的政策支持。

        The report indicates that an accelerated cast for bioenergy shows potential for an additional 19 GW of capacity over the next five-years, a 50 percent increase on the main case. The accelerated case highlights potential higher energy-from-waste and biomass cogeneration deployment in China, along with enhanced policy support in India for the utilization of agricultural residues and increased bagasse electricity generation in Brazil.

        在供熱領域,國際能源署(IEA)指出,2017年現代生物能源產生了近70%的直接可再生熱量,目前滿足工業用熱需求的8%,主要是生產生物質廢物和殘留物的部門。

        In the heat sector, the IEA notes that modern bioenergy produced almost 70 percent of direct renewable heat in 2017 and currently meets 8 percent of industrial heat demand, mostly in sectors that produce biomass waste and residues.

         

        預計未來5年工業部門對生物能源的消費將增長13%。根據國際能源署(IEA)的報告,目前生物能源在水泥、糖和乙醇工業中尚未開發的潛力也很重要。如果主要的水泥生產國為廢物管理引入強有力的政策,國際能源署(IEA)預測工業部門的生物能源使用量可進一步增加13%。

        The consumption of bioenergy by the industrial sector is expected to grow 13 percent over the next five years. According to the IEA, there is currently significant untapped potential to increase bioenergy use in the cement, sugar and ethanol industries. If key cement-producing countries were to introduce robust frameworks for waste management, the IEA predicts the use of bioenergy in the industrial sector could be further increased by an additional 13 percent.

        在建筑物中,國際能源署(IEA)預測到2023年生物能源的使用將增長8%。在住宅領域,報告顯示歐盟占全球生物能源消費的54%。意大利領導顆粒爐市場,而顆粒鍋爐幾乎占德國市場的一半。國際能源署(IEA)表示,美國仍然是建筑行業最大的生物能源消費者。

        In buildings, the IEA predicts bioenergy use will grow by 8 percent through 2023. In the residential sector, the report shows the European union accounts for 54 percent of global bioenergy consumption. Italy leads the pellet stove market, while pellet boilers made up almost half the market in Germany. The IEA said the U.S. remains the largest single consumer of bioenergy in the buildings sector.

         

        交通運輸部門的可再生能源滲透率最低,可再生能源的比例預計將從2017年的3.4%增長到2023年的3.8%。

        The transportation sector has the lowest penetration of renewables, with the share of renewables expected to grow from 3.4 percent in 2017 to 3.8 percent in 2023.

         

        到2023年,預計5年內生物燃料產量將增加15%,達到1650億升(435.9億加侖)。到2023年,預計生物燃料將占交通運輸行業可再生能源總量的近90%。 燃料乙醇預計占生物燃料產量增長的三分之二,生物柴油和加氫處理植物油占其余部分。

        Biofuel production over the five-year period is expected to increase 15 percent, reaching 165 billion liters (43.59 billion gallons) by 2023. By 2023, biofuels are expected to account for nearly 90 percent of total renewables in the transportation sector. Fuel ethanol is expected to make up two-thirds of biofuel production growth, with biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil making up the remainder.

        亞洲國家占未來5年生物燃料產量增長的大部分,國際能源署(IEA)預測中國、印度和東南亞國家聯盟成員國占全球生物燃料生產擴張的一半。拉丁美洲將增長45%,特別是巴西。

        Asian countries account for the majority of the growth in biofuel output over the next five years, with the IEA predicting China, India and member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations representing half of the global expansion in biofuel production. Latin America will be responsible for an additional 45 percent of that growth, particularly Brazil.

         

        在有利的市場和政策條件下,國際能源署(IEA)表示,未來5年生物燃料的增長可能會更加顯著,達到近2060億升的產量。

        Under favorable market and policy conditions, the IEA said the growth in biofuels could be even more significant over the next five years, reaching nearly 206 billion liters of production.

         

        來源:Biomass Magazine 

        By:Erin Voegele

         

         

         

         

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