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        全球先進生物能源資訊 » 新聞資訊 » 國際資訊 » 正文行業新聞 國際資訊 專家學者 技術交流 政策法規 展會動態 

        亞洲生物質市場:木屑顆粒扮演多大的角色

        放大字體  縮小字體 發布日期:2018-12-18  來源:全球先進生物能源資訊  瀏覽次數:1027
         

        毫無疑問,亞洲對生物質的需求正在迅速增長,但不為人知的是木屑顆粒在滿足新興需求方面將扮演多大的角色,這些顆粒來自何處。

        There is no doubt that Asia’s demand for biomass is growing rapidly, but a big unknown is how much of a role wood pellets will play in meeting the emerging demand, and where will those pellets come from.

         

        ·2017年韓國和日本木屑顆粒進口情況。

        ·South Korea and Japan 2017 wood pellet imports.

         

        亞洲對生物質的需求正在迅速增長。過去幾年里,進口到韓國和日本的木屑顆粒在呈指數增長。2017年,韓國進口240萬噸 (Mt)木屑顆粒,比2012年進口量增加20倍。日本目前是一個相對較小的市場,但其增長也令人印象深刻。2017年,日本進口量超過50萬噸,比2012年增長7倍。

        Wood pellet imports into South Korea and Japan have grown exponentially in the past few years. In 2017, South Korea imported 2.4 metric tons (MT) of wood pellets, 20 times what was imported in 2012. Japan is currently a smaller market, but its growth has also been impressive. Japan imported over 0.5 MT in 2017, a seven-fold increase from 2012. 

        韓國 Korea

        韓國政府于2012年推出的可再生能源組合標準(RPS),其支持了生物能源的快速增長。它要求容量超過500兆瓦的能源公司從可再生能源中獲得越來越多的電力。為了滿足其RPS目標,有義務的公司可以生產自己的可再生能源,這將獲得可再生能源生產的每兆瓦時(MWh)可再生能源證書(RECs),或購買市場上的REC。但在5月份,政府宣布對RPS進行了更改,這有可能危及一些計劃中的生物質項目。政府決定改變一些生物質技術的REC權重。其動機是減少有義務公司對生物質和進口材料的依賴,以實現其RPS目標,并鼓勵使用其他可再生技術的。

        The Renewable Portfolio Standard, introduced by the South Korean government in 2012, has supported the rapid growth of bioenergy. It requires energy companies with capacity exceeding 500 MW to obtain an increasing proportion of their electricity from renewable sources. To satisfy their RPS targets, obligated companies can either produce their own renewable energy, which will earn them renewable energy certificates (RECs) per megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable energy produced, or purchase RECs on the market. But in May, the government announced changes to the RPS, which threatened to jeopardize some planned biomass projects. The government decided to change the REC weightings of some biomass technologies. Its motivation was to reduce obligated companies’ reliance on biomass and imported materials in achieving their RPS targets, and encourage deployment of other renewable technologies. 

        新的REC權重(上圖)適用于新的生物質項目,或希望改變其燃料類型的運營項目,而現有項目將繼續獲得之前的REC權重。這些變化意味著使用進口生物質的新型專用工廠的支持率將從1.5 REC/MWh降至1 REC/MWh,而新的使用進口木材共燒和煤轉化生物轉化項目現在根本得不到任何支持。但是,對于計劃使用國內“未使用的木材”的項目支持有所增加,例如:森林殘留物。

        The new REC weightings (Figure 1) apply to new biomass projects, or operating projects that wish to change their fuel type, while existing projects will continue to receive the previous REC weightings. The changes mean new, dedicated plants using imported biomass will see their support fall from 1.5 REC/MWh to 1 REC/MWh, while new cofiring and coal-to-biomass conversion projects using imported wood will now receive no support at all. However, support has increased for projects planning to use domestic, “unused wood,” e.g. forest residues. 

         

        政府已經引入了寬限期,這意味著如果計劃的專用生物質項目在2019年1月之前獲得建設計劃批準,它們仍可以申請舊的REC權重。任何未能在此日期之前獲得建設許可的項目將只有削減支持。我們的分析表明,專用工廠的新REC權重將威脅到它們的經濟可行性,這使得規劃階段的人們能夠確保舊的權重。很難知道管道中的哪些專用工廠能夠滿足六個月的許可期限完工,但寬限期激勵了計劃的專門的項目,以便快速制定發展計劃。

        The government has introduced a grace period, which means planned, dedicated biomass projects can still claim the old REC weightings if they secure construction plan approval before January 2019. Any projects that fail to obtain construction approval by this date will only be eligible for the reduced support. Our analysis suggests that the new REC weightings for dedicated plants will threaten their economic viability, making it vital for those in the planning stages to secure the old weightings. It is difficult to know which dedicated plants in the pipeline will be able to meet the six-month permitting deadline, but the grace period has incentivized planned, dedicated projects to move quickly with development plans.

         

        此外,支持計劃共燒和煤轉化生物轉換項目的削減意味著GS E&R取消了其在Donghae電廠的共燒計劃,KOEN將不再將其Yeongdong 2號機組從煤炭轉為生物質 (它將繼續在該機組共燒生物質)。

        In addition, the cuts to support for planned cofiring and coal-to-biomass conversion projects means GS E&R has cancelled its plans to cofire at its Donghae Electric Power plant, and KOEN will no longer convert its Yeongdong unit No. 2 from coal to biomass (it will continue to cofire biomass at the unit).

        其他已經在其煤電廠中共燒木屑顆粒以幫助實現其RPS目標的公司將不會受到這些變化的影響,包括五家國有發電企業,這些企業一直是韓國木屑顆粒的主要消費者。因此,短期生物質需求應該是穩定的,但越來越多的人猜測韓國政府可能很快就會改變其政策并減少對現有煤炭生產商的支持。我們理解,政府期望在2019年中期決定是否遏制共燒。

        Other companies that already cofire wood pellets in their coal plants to help meet their RPS targets will be unaffected by the changes, including the five state-owned generating companies that have been the main consumers of wood pellets in South Korea. Therefore, short-term biomass demand should be stable, but there has been mounting speculation that the South Korean government could soon change its policy and reduce support for existing cofirers, too. We understand that a decision is expected from the government about whether to curb cofiring in mid-2019.

        日本 Japan

        在日本,市場的發展與韓國不同,日本市場由上網電價(FIT)計劃提供支持,該計劃為生產可再生能源的企業提供20年的補貼。生物質已被證明非常受歡迎。到2017年3月,近12GW的生物質項目在FIT計劃下獲得批準,遠遠超過日本2030年最佳能源組合愿景中2.7-4GW設想的數量。

        In Japan, the market has evolved differently from South Korea, and instead has been supported by a feed-in-tariff (FIT) scheme that provides a 20-year subsidy to firms producing renewable energy. Biomass, specifically under the general wood category, has proved hugely popular. By March 2017, almost 12 GW of biomass projects had been approved under the FIT scheme, far exceeding the quantity envisaged under Japan’s Best Energy Mix 2030 scenario of 2.7 to 4 GW.

        顯而易見,這種潛在的大規模生物質需求的增長引起了很多關注。全球的生物質生產商和用戶正在緊盯亞洲,希望了解日益增長的市場如何影響現有的全球貿易流量。

        The huge scale of this potential growth in biomass demand has, understandably, drawn a lot of attention. Biomass producers and users worldwide are looking keenly to Asia, and wish to understand how the growing market may impact existing global trade flows. 


        然而亞洲生物質需求的前景遠未確定,而各種各樣的變數可能會限制其增長。Hawkins Wright為了確定新興生物質市場的真實性質,在過去幾個月來,進行了廣泛的實地考察,實地考察,會議,定量和定性分析。這項研究為我們提供了獨特的見解,這些見解發表在一份新的報告“2030年亞太生物質需求和供應的戰略評估”中。
        The outlook for Asian biomass demand is far from certain, however, and a wide range of variables could feasibly constrain its growth. Hawkins Wright therefore wanted to establish the true nature of the emerging biomass market. Over several months, we carried out extensive fieldwork, site visits, meetings, quantitative and qualitative analysis. This research has provided us with unique insights that are published in a new, multiclient report, “Strategic Assessment of Asian Pacific Biomass Demand and Supply out to 2030.”

        該研究的一個重要部分是確定可用生物質的可行來源,以滿足這一新市場的需求。我們不僅要確定需要多少生物質,還要確定其來源。
        An important part of that study was identifying viable sources of available biomass that could meet the needs of this new market. We wanted to determine not just how much biomass will be needed, but where it will come from. 


        目前,該地區的許多生物質需求來自燃煤電廠共燒木屑顆粒。但展望未來,新需求中越來越多的部分將由專用的生物質的電廠組成。這些專用設備將使用循環流化床鍋爐,其比煤粉鍋爐使用燃料更加靈活,因此不限于僅使用木屑顆粒??梢约僭O發電商因此將采購更多本地的、更便宜的替代生物質,如PKS或木片,但是,我們得出結論,木屑顆粒將繼續發揮非常重要的作用。
        Currently, a lot of the region’s biomass demand is from coal-fired power plants cofiring wood pellets. But looking ahead, a growing proportion of the new demand will consist of dedicated biomass plants. Those dedicated plants will utilize circulated fluidized bed boilers, which are much more fuel flexible then pulverized coal boilers, and therefore not restricted to using just wood pellets. It could be assumed that generators will therefore source more local, cheaper alternative biomass such as PKS or wood chips, however, we have concluded that wood pellets will continue to play a very important role.

        我們看到木屑顆粒的巨大潛力可以滿足不斷增長的需求,我們預計很大一部分將來自北美供應商。促使我們預測的一個主要因素是日本和韓國的許多專用電廠將由債務資助的獨立發電企業開發。如果一個項目開發商打算用債務為一個電力項目提供資金,那么貸方幾乎肯定希望與一個可融資的交易對手達成一份安全的原料供應合同。相反,由母公司的資產負債表資助的項目,或者意圖以相當低的費率使用煤炭與生物質共燒的公用事業公司,可能認為長期燃料合同不必要或太昂貴。

        We see great potential for wood pellets to fulfill the growing demand, and we predict a large percentage will come from North American suppliers. One major factor fueling our prediction is that many of the dedicated plants in Japan and South Korea will be developed by IPPs funded by debt. If a project developer intends to finance a power project with debt, lenders will almost certainly want a secure feedstock supply contract to be agreed with a bankable counterparty. Conversely, a project financed by a parent company’s balance sheet, or a utility intending to cofire biomass with coal at fairly low rates, may deem a long-term fuel contract unnecessary or too expensive. 

         

        根據我們的研究,我們已經確定了許多可以被視為可融資的公司,但目前沒有一家公司在東南亞。因此,尋求可融資供應的亞洲買家可能需要從北美采購木屑顆粒,那里有值得信賴的大型生產商,擁有可靠的記錄。
        From our research, we have identified a number of companies that could be deemed bankable, but none are currently in Southeast Asia. Therefore, Asian buyers looking for bankable supply may need to source wood pellets from North America, where there are creditworthy, large-scale producers with a reliable track record. 

        日本對加拿大西部的顯示了高度興趣。但在利用加拿大所有負擔得起的供應時,日本人將開始尋找北美的其他地方。美國南部是一個明顯的選擇,因為它具有800萬噸的安裝工業級銘牌容量。美國木屑顆粒生產商Enviva已經與日本買家簽訂了合同。然而,具有挑戰性的物流和高昂的運輸成本將成為美國南方希望出口到亞洲的生產商的障礙,這些挑戰能夠克服多少將影響到能夠獲得多少供應。

        That trend is already evident in the high interest that Japan has shown in western Canada. But at the point where all affordable supply in Canada is utilized, the Japanese will start to look elsewhere in North America. The U.S. South is an obvious choice, given its 8 MT of installed, industrial-grade nameplate capacity. Already, U.S. wood pellet producer Enviva has secured contracts with Japanese buyers. However, challenging logistics and high transport costs will be a barrier to producers in the U.S. South wanting to export to Asia, and how well those challenges can be overcome will influence how much supply can be secured. 

        與此同時,一些規劃專用生物質發電廠的韓國獨立發電企業也可以按照與日本交易對手類似的思路。然而,五個韓國發電商不太可能改變他們的購買習慣。他們在一些燃煤站以低共燒率(3%至5%)共燒木屑顆粒,并有義務通過招標系統購買。該系統傾向于低成本供應,不重視安全性或質量,并幫助建立了東南亞供應市場,特別是越南在該地區的主導地位。2017年,越南占韓國進口量的62%,超過150萬噸。

        Meanwhile, some South Korean IPPs planning dedicated biomass power plants could follow a similar train of thought to their Japanese counterparties. However, it is unlikely the five South Korean gencos will change their purchasing habits. They cofire wood pellets at low rates (3 to 5 percent) at a few of their coal-fired stations, and are obligated to purchase via a tender system. This system has favored low-cost supply, with no importance put on security or quality, and has helped establish the SE Asian supply market, specifically Vietnam’s dominance in the region. Vietnam accounted for 62 percent of South Korea’s imports in 2017, sending over 1.5 MT. 

        另一個可能鼓勵木屑顆粒需求的因素是東南亞地區對生物質供應的高度競爭。 根據我們在紙漿和造紙行業的經驗,很明顯該地區的木片供應面臨壓力,雖然PKS資源豐富,但棕櫚油廠的運輸限制及其目前的使用將嚴重限制出口。

        Another factor likely to encourage demand for wood pellets is the high level of competition for biomass supply in SE Asia. From our experience in the pulp and paper industry, it is clear that wood chip supply is under pressure in the region, and although there are abundant resources of PKS, transportation limitations and its current use by palm oil mills will severely limit exports. 


        東南亞木屑顆粒供應商也將發揮作用,特別是一旦該地區出現更具流動性的現貨市場,但并不是說不會與東南亞供應商簽訂長期合同。然而,在短期內,隨著亞洲項目的大型管道努力獲得融資,我們預計將與北美供應商簽訂更多合同。時間將證明東南亞的供應商是否能夠展示出足夠的信譽以增加其合同供應量。
        There will be a role for SE Asian wood pellet suppliers, too, especially once a more liquid spot market emerges in the region, though that is not to say long-term contracts will not be signed with SE Asian suppliers. In the near-term, however, as the large pipeline of Asian projects work toward securing financing, we predict more contracts will be signed with North American suppliers. Time will show whether suppliers in SE Asia are able to demonstrate sufficient creditworthiness to increase their contracted supply volumes. 

         

        來源:By Rachael Levinson

         

         

         

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