<button id="a3wgx"></button>
        <tbody id="a3wgx"></tbody>

         
         
         
        全球先進生物能源資訊 » 新聞資訊 » 國際資訊 » 正文行業新聞 國際資訊 專家學者 技術交流 政策法規 展會動態 

        2019年木屑顆粒市場展望 2019 wood pellet markets outlook

        放大字體  縮小字體 發布日期:2019-01-03  來源:全球先進生物能源資訊  瀏覽次數:966
         

        從北美生產商的角度來看,2018年是相當長一段時間內,木屑顆粒貿易最好的年份之一。隨著英國Drax電站的崛起,經過幾年的緩和發展,新市場和消費者推動了全球需求的強勁增長。丹麥、韓國和日本的進口均較之前的高位,增加至少40%,日本木屑顆粒進口量增加一倍以上。經過幾年的疲軟,更好的市場條件和更少的庫存也使得北美和歐洲供暖市場強勁增長。

        From a North American producer’s perspective, 2018 was one of the best years in quite some time for the wood pellet trade. After several years of tempered development following the ramp up of the Drax power station in the UK, new markets and consumers drove strong growth in global demand. Imports to Denmark, South Korea and Japan all increased at least 40 per cent from previous highs, with Japanese wood pellet imports more than doubling. Better market conditions and less inventory also led to strong growth in North American and European heating markets after several weak years.

         

        總體而言,2018年的木屑顆粒貿易量估計為2380萬噸,比2017年的1890萬噸高出26%。 本文將展望未來幾年主要市場的預期。
        Overall, wood pellet trade in 2018 is estimated at 23.8 million tonnes, a whopping 26 per cent increase from 2017’s 18.9 million tonnes. This article will provide an outlook for what to expect from key markets in the years to come.

        工業顆粒市場
        Industrial pellet markets

        2018年工業顆粒需求估計為1750萬噸。FutureMetrics預計,2023年工業需求將攀升至2900萬噸。

        Industrial pellet demand is estimated at 17.5 million tonnes in 2018. FutureMetrics projects that industrial demand will climb to 29 million tonnes in 2023.

        預計近60%的新需求增長來自亞洲,其余大部分來自英國需求的增加以及荷蘭重要的工業顆粒市場的重新出現。

        Nearly 60 per cent of this new demand growth is projected to come from Asia, with most of the remainder from increased demand in the UK and the re-emergence of a significant industrial pellet market in the Netherlands.

        英國 United Kingdom

        2018年,隨著EPH的 396兆瓦Lynemouth電站改造的調試以及Drax電站第四臺機組的轉換,英國顆粒需求在幾年內首次大幅增加。

        In 2018, UK pellet demand increased significantly for the first time in several years with the commissioning of EPH’s 396 MW Lynemouth Power Station conversion and the conversion of a fourth unit at the Drax power station.

         

        展望未來,增長將主要受到Lynemouth電站全面運營和Drax電站可用性增加的推動。到2020年,隨著MGT的 299兆瓦Teeside熱電聯產工廠的預定試運行,英國需求將再次增加,預計每年將使用150萬噸。
        Moving forward, growth will be primarily driven by a ramp up to full operation at Lynemouth and increased availability at the Drax power station. In 2020, UK demand will increase again with the scheduled commissioning of MGT’s 299 MW Teeside CHP plant, expected to use up to 1.5 million tonnes per year.

        荷蘭 Netherlands

        荷蘭作為工業木屑顆粒的主要市場有著悠久的歷史。2010年,荷蘭是工業木屑顆粒的最大市場 - 用于共燒以實現可再生能源目標。2012年推出新的可再生能源補貼計劃后,市場迅速下滑。新的SDE +計劃要求在生物質共燒有資格獲得補貼之前制定新的可持續性標準。該可持續性標準最終于2015年獲得批準。

        The Netherlands has a history as a major market for industrial wood pellets. In 2010, the Netherlands was the biggest market for industrial wood pellets – used for co-firing to meet renewable energy goals. The market rapidly declined when a new renewable energy subsidy scheme was introduced in 2012. The new SDE+ scheme required new sustainability standards to be developed before biomass co-firing could qualify for subsidies. That sustainability criteria were finally approved in 2015.

         

        2016年,四個電站共同獲得補貼:RWE的Amer和Eemshaven電站、Engie Rotterdam和Uniper Maasvlakte 3(MPP3)。 Amer電站9號機組曾在舊的補貼計劃下共燒,于2018年第四季度恢復共燒大量木屑顆粒。
        In 2016, subsidies were awarded for co-firing at four power plants: RWE’s Amer and Eemshaven power stations, Engie Rotterdam and Uniper Maasvlakte 3 (MPP3). Unit 9 at the Amer power station, which had previously co-fired under the old subsidy scheme, resumed co-firing significant amounts of wood pellets in the fourth quarter of 2018.

         

        其他電廠可能會在2019年和2020年開始共燒,使荷蘭再次成為工業木屑顆粒的主要市場。預計荷蘭共燒需求的增加將迅速接近250萬噸。
        The other plants will likely begin co-firing in 2019 and 2020, making the Netherlands a major market for industrial wood pellets once again. The ramp up in co-firing demand in the Netherlands is expected to quickly approach 2.5 million tonnes.

        日本 Japan

        日本木屑顆粒進口量在2018年首次超過100萬噸,約為2017年進口量的兩倍。到2018年前三季度,日本63%的木屑進口來自加拿大,31% 來自越南。 由于日本支持可再生能源的上網電價補貼的固定價格和長期合約,強大的對手(如加拿大和美國)的長期合約是大多數日本買家采購木屑顆粒的首選方式。 我們預計未來幾年日本木屑顆粒進口量將持續快速增長,預計2023年進口量將超過500萬噸。
        Japanese wood pellet imports are on pace to exceed one million tonnes for the first time in 2018, approximately double the amount of imports from 2017. Through the first three quarters of 2018, 63 per cent of Japan’s wood pellet imports came from Canada and 31 per cent from Vietnam. Due to the fixed price and long contract length of the Feed-in-Tariff subsidy that supports renewable energy in Japan, long-term contracts from strong counter-parties, like those in Canada and the U.S., are the preferred way most Japanese buyers procure wood pellets. We expect to see continued rapid expansion in Japanese wood pellet imports in the years to come with imports projected to exceed five million tonnes in 2023. Our full detailed analysis on Japan is available in FutureMetrics’ 2018 Japanese Biomass Outlook, which will be updated again in early 2019.

        韓國 South Korea

        在韓國,可再生能源由可再生能源組合標準(RPS)推動,該標準要求公用事業公司從可再生能源中獲取越來越多的能源??山灰椎目稍偕茉醋C書(REC)用于證明合規性。公用事業有三種方式來滿足RPS:自己生產REC,在交易所購買REC,或支付相當于年內REC平均價格150%的罰款。公用事業公司發現,共燒木屑顆粒是滿足RPS最具成本效益的方法之一。

        In South Korea, renewable energy is promoted by a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires utilities to source an increasing amount of their energy from renewable sources. Tradable Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are used to demonstrate compliance. Utilities have three ways of meeting the RPS: produce RECs themselves, purchase RECs on an exchange, or pay a fine equal to 150 per cent of the average REC price during the year. Utilities have found that co-firing wood pellets is one of the most cost-effective ways of meeting the RPS.

        然而,由于 RECs的價值、電力價格和顆粒價格的不確定性,韓國買家在簽訂長期合同時更加困難。盡管如此,仍有與北美生產商成功進行合同談判的情況,特別是與專用生物質發電廠(而非主要公用事業公司在煤炭站共燒)。

        However, due to uncertainty regarding the value of RECs, the price of power and the price of pellets, South Korean buyers have a more difficult time entering into long-term contracts. Nevertheless, there have been instances of successful contract negotiations with North American producers, particularly with dedicated biomass plants (as opposed to major utilities co-firing at coal stations).

         

        韓國的需求主要是由快速發展的東南亞木屑顆粒生產能力滿足。2018年,韓國的木屑顆粒進口量預計將達到340萬噸,其中95%以上來自東南亞。
        South Korean demand is largely responsible for the rapid development of wood pellet production capacity in Southeast Asia. In 2018, South Korea’s wood pellet imports are projected to have reached 3.4 million tonnes, with more than 95 per cent of that volume coming from Southeast Asia.

        顆粒供暖市場
        Pellet heating markets

        雖然工業顆粒市場得到了市場分析師的大量關注,但供暖市場占全球總需求的大量增長,FutureMetrics預測未來五年將持續強勁增長。溫暖的冬天和低競爭的燃料價格,特別是取暖油,在過去幾年減緩了北美和歐洲的顆粒供暖需求增長。 雖然最近油價的下跌引起了一些擔憂,但在大多數情況下,顆粒仍然比歐洲的化石供暖燃料節省了大量成本,并且除了美國的天然氣之外,北美也是如此。

        While industrial pellet markets get the bulk of market analysts’ attention, heating markets make up a significant amount of total global demand and FutureMetrics forecasts continued strong growth over the next five years. Warm winters and low competing fuel prices, particularly for heating oil, slowed pellet heating demand growth in North America and Europe over the last few years. While a recent fall in oil prices raises some concern, for the most part pellets still enjoy a significant cost savings over fossil-based heating fuels in Europe and, with the notable exception of natural gas in the U.S., North America as well.

         

        在大多數情況下,顆粒供暖需求由當地生產商提供,因此對全球貿易的影響較小。 雖然美國、德國、法國、奧地利、瑞典和其他國家都有大量的顆粒供暖需求,但唯一對全球貿易產生重大影響的市場是意大利,其中顆粒主要用于家庭供暖。 我們估計2018年意大利進口了230萬噸顆粒。市場可能更大,因為意大利木屑顆粒存在黑市,以避免22%的增值稅(VAT) - 估計為20-30萬噸由加拿大木屑顆粒協會提供。

        For the most part, pellet heating demand is supplied by local producers, so it has less of an impact on global trade. While the U.S., Germany, France, Austria, Sweden and others have substantial pellet heating demand, the only market that has a significant impact on global trade is Italy, where pellets are primarily used for home heating. We estimate that Italy imported 2.3 million tonnes of pellets in 2018. The market is likely even larger as there is a black market for wood pellets in Italy to avoid a 22 per cent value-added tax (VAT) – estimated at 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes by the Wood Pellet Association of Canada.


        美國擁有世界上最大的顆粒供暖市場之一。 2018年的年需求估計為250萬至300萬噸。大約85%的美國需求由中小型國內生產商滿足,大約10%來自加拿大,5%來自美國南部的工業生產商。在過去幾年中,美國顆粒市場庫存過剩,但已經清理,生產商現在擔心2018-2019供暖季節市場短缺,這主要是由于東部的纖維供應問題(約 50%的美國市場在東北部)。 我們預計未來幾年美國供暖市場將出現溫和增長,但與工業市場預期不同。
        The U.S. has one of the largest pellet heating markets in the world. Annual demand in 2018 is estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 million tonnes. About 85 per cent of U.S. demand is met by small- and medium-sized domestic producers, roughly 10 per cent is imported from Canada and five per cent comes from industrial producers in the U.S. South. For the last several years, the U.S. pellet market has had a glut of inventory, but that has cleared and producers are now worried about shortages in the market over the 2018-2019 heating season, primarily due to fibre supply issues in the East (about 50 per cent of the U.S. market is in the Northeast). We expect to see moderate growth in the U.S. heating market over the next several years, but nothing like what is expected in industrial markets.

         

        北美顆粒生產
        North American pellet production

        2018年北美顆粒出口量將增至歷史最高水平。預計美國顆粒出口量將增加至620萬噸,相比2017年增長20%。加拿大顆粒出口量預計將增加至240萬噸,比上一年增長12.6% 。FutureMetrics估計,2023年美國出口量將增加到850萬噸,而加拿大出口量將增加到370萬噸。

        North American pellet exports will have increased to an all-time high in 2018. U.S. pellet exports are projected to increase to 6.2 million tonnes, up 20 per cent from 2017. Canadian pellet exports are projected to increase to 2.4 million tonnes, up 12.6 per cent from a year prior. FutureMetrics projects that U.S. exports will increase to 8.5 million tonnes in 2023 while Canadian exports will increase to 3.7 million metric tonnes.

        隨著工業木屑顆粒市場的定價和需求強勁增長,我們預計再經過幾年的實際增長后,將在美國南部開發新的主要工業制粒廠。此外,美國太平洋西北地區有能力為快速增長的亞洲顆粒市場供應一定數量的產品。緬因州有望成為新的重要出口地。

        With pricing and demand growth strong in industrial wood pellet markets, we expect to see new major industrial pellet mills to be developed in the U.S. South after several years of measured growth. In addition, the U.S. Pacific Northwest is well positioned to supply some volume to rapidly growing Asian pellet markets. Maine is poised to become a new significant exporter.

        在加拿大西部,新的增長可能會更加明顯。森林火災損失和高收獲率的結束正在影響鋸木廠的生產,從而影響了鋸木廠的剩余物產量。顆粒生產商必須采購森林剩余物以維持生產率。加拿大東部將看到幾個中小型工業制粒廠的發展,因為這些地區的鋸木廠在尋找剩余物的市場。

        In western Canada, new growth will likely be more measured. Forest fire losses and the end of the high harvest rates from dead stands killed by the mountain pine beetle are affecting sawmill production and thus sawmill residual output. Pellet producers must procure forest residuals to maintain production rates. Eastern Canada will see the development of several small- to medium-sized industrial pellet mills as sawmillers in those regions look for markets for their residuals.

         

        來源:Canadian Biomass Magazine

         

         

         

        本文關鍵字:
         
        推薦圖文
        推薦新聞資訊
        最新文章
         
         
        一比一真金捕鱼